Citi downgraded Roblox to Neutral from Buy on November 13, 2026, and kept its $55 price target, Seeking Alpha reported. Analyst Jason Bazinet’s target is about 7% above the November 12 close of $51.42 ($55 ÷ $51.42 = 1.07).
Citi cited slowing engagement and risk to bookings growth, naming two pressures: fading momentum in Steal an Egg, a summer hit, and Grand Theft Auto VI, due November 19, which Citi expects to pull players and playtime away from Roblox. Citi puts fourth-quarter bookings at about $1.92 billion, slightly below the midpoint of Roblox’s guidance. The shares opened about 3.5% lower.
Roblox’s own figures show the slowdown. Its third-quarter shareholder letter reported 138 million daily active users for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, down 9% from a year earlier, and nearly 34 billion engaged hours, down 15%. Bookings fell 12% to $1,697 million but beat the top of the company’s range. For the fourth quarter of 2026, Roblox guided bookings to $1,890 million to $2,000 million, a 10% to 15% decline year over year. Separately, CEO David Baszucki has said two AI-made games reached Roblox’s top 20.
Does the downgrade point to a guidance miss? Citi’s estimate sits inside the range. The midpoint of Roblox’s outlook is $1,945 million (($1,890 million + $2,000 million) ÷ 2). An estimate of about $1,920 million is $25 million, or roughly 1.3%, below that midpoint and $30 million above the low end. Citi’s figures place the quarter at the soft end of Roblox’s forecast, and with GTA VI not yet released, they cannot show how much playtime the game will actually take.
Roblox defines bookings as sales activity in a period, nearly all of it virtual currency. Those sales are recorded as deferred revenue and mostly recognized over the estimated lifetime of a paying user, 27 months in the third quarter. That lag is why Roblox expects fourth-quarter revenue to rise 4% to 12% while bookings fall. Its outlook assumes daily users drop from the third quarter in line with recent seasonal patterns, and the range is slightly wider because a large share of bookings typically arrives in the last week of December. Citi’s estimate and the guidance are both platform-wide totals, folding in markets such as the Asia-Pacific countries where Roblox is applying its Japan playbook.
GTA VI goes on sale November 19 for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. Roblox’s fourth-quarter report will show where bookings landed against that range.
